Developing an integrated resource optimization model of a river basin in Kenya

Project

This thesis will be conducted as a part of the EPIC Africa project . The EPIC Africa project develops a fully open-source model for integrated assessment of synergies and trade-offs between resources systems water-energy-food in the Volta and Tana River basins. River basins with hydropower not only have the opportunity to provide affordable, renewable electricity generation but also provide multi-purpose benefits such as flood control and irrigation if properly managed. The EPIC Africa model will represent these complex dynamics and provide important knowledge for effective policy design and decision-making in the Tana River basins.

Background

Kenya’s current electricity mix already has a much higher share of renewables in primary energy and electricity supply respectively (over 70% and ~85/90% respectively in 2020). Although Kenya is one of the few exceptions in sub–Saharan Africa to significantly increase household electricity access over the last decade, from 20% in 2013 to almost 85% in 2019 (IEA, 2022), it still faces significant challenges to address SDG goals on energy and food.

The Tana basin is fully within one country, Kenya (over 126,000 km2 in area), with various agro-ecological zones extending over a thousand kms from Mount Kenya’s forests to the flood plains of the Tana Delta at the Indian Ocean. As the major water basin in Kenya, it supplies almost all the hydropower (33% of total electricity currently with further hydropower possible/planned) and 40% of irrigated agriculture. The demand for biofuels has for example driven deforestation, which contributes towards exacerbating high silt loads and low reservoir levels shortening the life of hydropower dams in the basin. Land use changes and expansion of agriculture into marginal lands have also exacerbated the sedimentation of hydropower stations as well as flooding of the mid basin plains. A growing population and economy in the upper parts of the basin around the capital Nairobi, expansion of agricultural land and increasing deforestation could also create a shortfall in demand for hydropower, irrigation and municipal water uses. To do a robust agricultural planning, detailed spatially explicit potentials and agro-climatic conditions need to be taken into account. Overall, the Tana basin needs to address multiple concerns at the same time: cost optimal energy and storage investment for a growing economy, water allocation and operational management at basin level for synergising agricultural, energy and environmental needs as well as assessing the impact of climate change for given infrastructure.

Task description

Using the OSeMOSYS modelling tool, the student will develop a spatially explicit CLEWs model and possibly integrate it with a geo-spatial model. This includes making informed decisions about the potential for integrated resource management and investment needs in Tana River basin, specifically focusing on energy, food, and land systems. The student will apply well-established methodologies outlined in the existing literature.

Learning outcomes

Upon completion of the thesis work, the student will be able to:

• Constructing an integrated resource optimization model with a focus on socio-economic aspects.
• Evaluating the support provided by an open-source integrated resource optimization model for decision-making.
• Discussing decision-making insights derived from an integrated resource modelling application within the context of a river basin.

Prerequisites

Prior knowledge of the energy system modelling or spatial analysis tools methods for integrated resource management and data collection methods is advantageous. Understanding the basic principles of the spatial analysis and spatially explicit modelling in beneficial.

Track Specialization

Transformation of Energy System (TES)

Division/Department

Division of Energy Systems – Department of Energy Technology

Research areas

• Integrated Climate, Land, Energy and Water Systems
• Energy systems and innovation
• Open tools for system science

Duration

The thesis is to start as soon as possible, with a planned date for defense in August 2024 (EGI Thesis Day scheduled for August 22).

How to apply

Send an email expressing your interest in the topic and your CV to the supervisors.

Supervision

Examiner