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Smart and Robust Electricity Infrastructure for the Future

The project Smart and Robust Electricity Infrastructure for the Future aims to identify and address future capacity requirements in the Stockholm region as a result of increased electric vehicle use, computerization and heat pump installation. With the help of existing simulation tools at the Institute of Energy Technology, KTH, short and long term scenarios for electricity use are established and the impact on the distribution and production capacity in the region is analyzed. Load flow analysis will be conducted in low and medium voltage distribution networks to identify infrastructure deficiencies. Measures in the form of network upgrades, load balancing and installation of local production will be analyzed and optimized regarding cost and environmental impact. Validation is done with input from Fortum, Svenska Kraftnät and Elbil2020. The methodology should be generally applicable to urban regions in and outside Sweden, and form the basis for decisions on infrastructure investments.

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Fortum Värme


Elbil2020 in collaboration with Ellevio


The Paris Agreement 2015 brought another milestone to counteract climate change through the objectives maximum 1.5 degree heating as 200 nations committed to realizing. In addition, this has The Swedish government and parliamentary parties in the summer of 2016 agreed on the pillars of energy policy in the future to realize climate goals through a goal of zero net greenhouse gas emissions 2045 and fossil-free power generation 2040. In order to achieve these goals, not only does electricity generation and electricity use change, but also Transport needs to be climate neutral. In current scenarios, such as NEPP this means a significantly increased share electric vehicles in the Swedish transport fleet with 2TWh 2030 and 7TWh 2050. Within the IT area, large server halls can be a reality that can significantly affect the power requirement. The use of heat pumps for heating is also increasing in households with increasing conversion efficiency and low electricity prices. However, deciding on a future robust electrical system based on production and distribution capacity is not only that total power consumption, but also coverage of power demand, ie power consumption stops during cold winter months and during times when many people want to use electricity simultaneously, for example when charging their electric cars when You get home from work. As pointed out in the NEPP report [3], the need for power in the future is largely due controlled by the proportion of electric cars and electric heating that will be present in the system and when these will be used. There are shortcomings in the electricity infrastructure already in the Stockholm region, where grid restrictions lead to restrictions on the expansion of electricity intensive infrastructure within the Stockholm ring. At the same time, the interest is that Install charging infrastructure for electric cars according to the Elbil2020 association larger than expected and interest in installation of household heat pumps increases due to low electricity prices. However, it is not only power constraints in the grid which constitute potential barriers to increased electricity use in the Stockholm region, but also limitations in low and inter-voltage networks that distribute the electricity from the grid to the customers. Current distribution stations and Wires have not been dimensioned for a significant power increase as electric car charging and heat pumps can means. In a study on the impact of increased penetration of electric cars and heat pumps in residential areas in Gothenburg region [4], David Steen has concluded that the maximum power output can increase more than 80% electricity use should follow a price-optimal usage strategy. Loss optimization strategies for power outlets car and heat occur during low load periods, on the other hand, only increase power consumption around 10% in the surveyed areas. Uncontrolled charging would still increase the maximum power output by over 30% as many distribution stations and wiring are not designed for today. Stone's study is limited to investigating capacity in selected 10 kV intermediate voltage stations in two districts in Gothenburg. He states that too low voltage networks need to be investigated and dimensioned for future load drops and that the electrical heat connection needs further highlighted. The reliability of the results of the study above is of course directly dependent on the scenarios for future use of electric vehicles and electricity for heating. The longer the time horizon, the more difficult it is to predict the future cargo image. Today, we lack load scenarios at regional and district level in the Stockholm region as well addresses the use of electric vehicles, electricity heat and electricity requirements due to computerization and can be used as input for dimensioning analyzes in the distribution networks. In our project proposal we want to build on studies as in reference above to address current and future capacity needs in distribution infrastructure in both the between and low voltage networks in the Stockholm region with consideration to scenarios for future electricity and electricity demand. We also want to investigate how and to what extent identified capacity shortages can be met with new local production capacity and how this capacity optimally integrates existing cogeneration system.

To create maximum synergies with ongoing projects, we want to use simulation tools for power, heat, load and production simulation available at the Department of Energy Technology, KTH, through the ERANET project IntegrCity currently integrates these into a city planning platform for co-simulation. The ERANET project concerns among other things, simulate the energy infrastructure in Hammarby Sjöstad and validate against available data. IntegrCity The platform also integrates tools for scenario simulation and prediction of future power needs. The Department for Power and Heating Technology in the Department of Energy Technology is the Swedish main partner in the ERANET project and provides simulation tools in techno-economic modeling of CHP infrastructure as well load flow simulation. Ellevio and Fortum contribute data to build models and simulate electrical infrastructure and heat infrastructure in selected Stockholm regions. The proposed project Smart and Robust Electric Infrastructure for However, the future is not dependent on the results of the ERANET project as simulation capacity for electricity usage scenarios, load flow analysis and production capacity are already available and can be applied independent of the project. Fortum and Svenska Kraftnät will support the project with expertise and validation data in simulation activities from scenario building over production capacity to load flow analysis. Elbil2020 will support the project with information about the actual installation rate of charge infrastructure and electric car penetration in Stockholm.

Aim and objectives

The overall objective of this project is to based on scenario analyzes for future electricity and heat demand identify capacity shortages in regional power grids and power generation infrastructure. For those identified capacity shortages should be found smart solutions that optimally combine load balancing methods, network capacity expansion and local production capacity. Methodology shall apply to model district in Stockholm region but should be generally applicable to other regions in and outside Sweden.


Future load scenarios and power flow analysis for neighborhoods in Stockholm. Assessment of required capacities for power in the Stockholm region


Topel M., Arnaudo M., Grundius J., Laumert B. ”Case Study on the Effects of Increasing Electric Vehicle and Heating Loads on a Distribution Network in Stockholm”, CIRED 2019 Madrid, Spain

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