Geospatial Mini-Hydropower Potential Assessments for OnSSET Electrification Planning

Background

Small and mini-hydropower (0.1–10 MW) plays a vital role in rural electrification, offering reliable, low-carbon baseload power for off-grid mini-grids systems. In geospatial energy planning, tools like OnSSET (Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool) rely on pre-assessed hydropower potential maps to determine where hydro is the least-cost technology option compared to solar PV, wind, or diesel.

The last comprehensive geospatial assessment of small-scale hydropower potential integrated into OnSSET was conducted by Korkovelos et al. (2018). While novel, this assessment was based on datasets and hydrological methods available prior to 2018. Since then, higher-resolution elevation models, global streamflow reanalysis datasets, climate projection models, and environmental flow standards have advanced significantly.

This thesis project aims to update and modernize the mini-hydropower modelling methodology within OnSSET using state-of-the-art geospatial datasets, hydrological flow, updated technoeconomic parameters and climate projections.

Objectives & Research Questions

Key Research Questions:

1. How do modern high-resolution spatial datasets improve head and river network identification compared to legacy datasets?

2. How does incorporating climate change projections affect the outcome?

3. What is the impact of updated hydro potential maps on OnSSET’s least-cost electrification technology split (Hydro vs. Solar PV Mini-grids vs. Grid Extension)?

Proposed Methodology

The proposed methodology adopts a hybrid geospatial approach that combines pre-conditioned hydrographic datasets with high-resolution surface elevation models to establish a robust topological and hydraulic baseline. Stream network topology, flow directions, and flow accumulation grids are sourced directly from hydrographically enforced datasets such as HydroSHEDS v2 at ~30m resolution or MERIT Hydro. To calculate hydraulic head drop (Δz) over defined river reach segments and penstock lengths, high-precision elevation profiles from the Copernicus 30m DEM or FABDEM are sampled directly along the streamlines. Individual river reaches cab be then integrated with global streamflow reanalysis time series, such as GEOGloWS ECMWF or GloFAS, to construct localized Flow Duration Curves (FDC). Environmental Flow Requirements (EFR) could also be are calculated using established hydrological frameworks, such as the Tennant or Smakhtin methods, and dynamically subtracted from available discharge.

Building on this hydrological baseline, turbine configurations can be evaluated to select the optimal technology type and determine installed capacity. Technoeconomic functions covering civil works, electromechanical equipment, penstocks, and grid interconnections are updated using recent industry costs to reflect capital and operational expenditures. An open-source Python processing pipeline utilizing libraries such as geopandas, rasterio, xarray, and networkx will be developed to automate stream processing, head-flow extraction, turbine sizing, and Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) calculations. Finally, the resulting mini-hydropower potential layers will be integrated into the OnSSET framework to execute comparative least-cost electrification scenario runs for a selected case study country or region.

Expected Deliverables

• Updated Hydropower Module/Pipeline: Reusable, open-source Python workflow for regional mini-hydropower assessment.

• Updated High-Resolution Hydro Potential Datasets: GIS raster/vector layers of head, firm capacity (kW/MW), and LCOE for the study region.

• Master thesis report: A Master’s thesis report illustrating the impact of the methodological upgrade on electrification planning, with publishable academic quality.

Prerequisities

• Enrolled in a Master’s program at KTH.

• Proficiency in Python (specifically spatial libraries: geopandas, rasterio, xarray, rioxarray, scipy).

• Basic understanding of GIS / Hydrology fundamentals (elevation models, flow accumulation, river basins) and energy system economics and interest to further develop those skills.

• Interest in open-source energy planning tools (OnSSET) and SDG 7.

Duration

5–6 months, start January 2027.

Specialization track

Transformation of Energy System (TES) - Division of Energy Systems

Division/Department

Division of Energy Systems – Department of Energy Technology

How to apply

Send an email expressing your interest in the topic to Camilo Ramirez Gomez (camilorg@kth.se).

Supervisor

Examiner

Key Literature

1. Korkovelos, A., Mentis, D., Siyal, S. H., Arderne, C., Rogner, H., Bazilian, M., Howells, M., Beck, H., & De Roo, A. (2018). A Geospatial Assessment of Small-Scale Hydropower Potential in Sub-Saharan Africa. Energies, 11(11), 3100. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11113100