Assessing Climate Risks to Electrification and Clean Cooking Systems

Background

Energy access investments are rapidly expanding to meet rising demand and development goals. However, these systems are increasingly exposed to climate risks that can affect their reliability, performance, and long-term sustainability.

Despite these realities, the majority of electrification and clean cooking planning still prioritizes least-cost considerations, with limited attention given to how climate hazards may influence system selection, technology performance, or investment longevity. Tools like OnSSET and OnStove produce sophisticated spatial outputs, but current implementations generally do not include hazard-specific exposure or sensitivity assessments.

This thesis will contribute to bridging this gap by systematically mapping how different system types and components are affected by various climate hazards, synthesizing available evidence. The work may also include a quantitative application where selected hazards are overlaid with OnSSET/OnStove outputs for a chosen region or country, illustrating how climate risk awareness could change technology preferences or investment priorities.

The thesis may address research questions such as:

• How do different climate hazards affect the performance, reliability, and lifecycle costs of key electrification technologies?

• What climate-sensitive factors influence the resilience of clean cooking systems, including LPG supply chains, electric cooking reliability, or biomass fuel availability and quality?

• What methodological approaches can be used to incorporate climate resilience into least-cost electrification and clean cooking planning?

• How do these risks vary geographically a country or region, and which system types are most exposed or vulnerable in particular contexts?

Task Description

The thesis will begin with a comprehensive literature-based investigation into how different climate hazards interact with and affect the performance, reliability, and long-term functioning of electrification and/or clean cooking systems. This will involve identifying the specific ways in which hazards such as flooding, drought, extreme heat, high precipitation, or wildfire influence the components and operation of grid systems, mini-grids, standalone technologies (including solar home systems and mini-hydro), and clean cooking solutions such as LPG, electric cooking, biomass, and improved cookstoves. Particular focus will be placed on tracing the “impact pathways” between hazard characteristics and energy system vulnerabilities, for example, how fluvial flooding affects substations and distribution lines, or how drought impacts generation for hydro-based mini-grids. The student will synthesize these linkages into a structured narrative that provides a comprehensive and evidence-based mapping of hazard–technology interactions.

Optionally, the student may choose to then apply this framework to a case study, focusing on a single climate hazard and assessing its implications for energy access/CC pathways in a country or region of interest (using existing data and scenarios from OnSSET or OnStove outputs). The student may evaluate which electrification or cooking systems appear most exposed, how exposure varies geographically, and which technologies may face elevated operational or reliability risks under projected conditions. While the emphasis is on assessing risk rather than designing adaptation measures, the student may contextualize findings by noting where resilience considerations could meaningfully alter planning priorities or technology suitability.

Learning Outcomes

• Gain a detailed understanding of how climate hazards interact with various electrification and clean cooking systems.

• Develop the ability to critically assess climate vulnerability and resilience literature in the energy sector.

• Learn to interpret and apply climate hazard datasets and scenarios.

• Acquire skills in linking climate risk indicators to geospatial modelling outputs (e.g. OnSSET/OnStove).

Prerequisities

Open to students in energy systems, sustainable development, environmental engineering, climate science, or related fields. An interest in climate resilience, spatial analysis, and energy access is essential.

Experience with Python or GIS is beneficial but not required. Optional quantitative components can be tailored to the student’s skill level and interest.

Duration

5–6 months, start January 2026.

Specialization track

Transformation of Energy System (TES) - Division of Energy Systems

Division/Department

Division of Energy Systems – Department of Energy Technology

How to apply

Send an email expressing your interest in the topic to Daniel Adshead (adshead@kth.se).

Supervisor

Key Literature

1. Adshead, D., Thacker, S., Pant, R., Hall, J. & Nerini, F. Integrating Climate Resilience in Energy Access Planning (September 08, 2025). Available at SSRN (preprint): http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5502178.
2. Mentis, D., Welsch, M., Fuso Nerini, F., Broad, O., Howells, M., Bazilian, M. & Rogner, H. A GIS based approach for electrification planning—A case study on Nigeria. Energy for Sustainable Development, 29:142-150 (2015). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0973082615000952.
3. Khavari, B., Ramirez, C., Jeuland, M., & Fuso Nerini, F. (2023). A geospatial approach to understanding clean cooking challenges in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature Sustainability, 6(4), 447–457. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-01039-8.
4. Verschuur, J. et al. Quantifying climate risks to infrastructure systems: A comparative review of developments across infrastructure sectors. PLOS Climate 3, e0000331 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000331.