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Development of long-term energy projections for African countries

The objective of this project is to develop a series of energy projections and associated water use of the whole energy system in African countries (48 countries) under different climate change scenarios for the period 2015-2065. The whole energy system with a focus in the power sector is been modelled using the OSeMOSYS tool. The model produces aggregate energy and detailed power system results in each country in the African continent. The modelling work help assess the impact of socio-economic changes, climate change, international agreements and commitments, resource potentials and technology-related developments on the energy system of the African countries.

Funded by:

Joint Research Centre of the European Commission

Time period:

2019.

Project partners:

 Background

In recent years, a lot of progress has been made in improving the socio-economic and energy situation of Africa. The African Union´s Agenda 2063 (African Union and Commission, 2015), the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (United Nations, 2016) and the Common African Position on the post-2015 Development Agenda (African Union, 2014) indicate the socio-economic transformation framework, the challenges posed by climate change as well as the goals for the African countries. The objectives of the aforementioned Agendas are to achieve economic growth and sustainable development in coming decades. Those frameworks indicate the importance and urgent need for energy planning. It is envisioned that the outcomes of the planning process will assist in selecting investments in energy production and services in the continent´s energy infrastructure so as to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030 (Sustainable Development Goal 7) and 2063. The SDGs recognise the integrated nature of development. For example, a number of key factors that influence the energy system and the achievement of Goal 7, including the declining costs of renewables, development of new energy technology and the new business models can both support and hinder the achievement of the other SDGs (Nerini et al., 2018).

Aim and objectives

The project provides insights on energy supply and demand, power generation, investments and total system costs, water consumption and withdrawal as well as carbon dioxide emissions for the African continent. The report develops consistent scenarios of energy supply to meet energy demand projections for the African countries (48 in total). Those scenarios explicitly report: simplified energy balances, gas trade, electricity trade and granular power system information for the medium to long term.

Outcomes

Publications

Technical report

Project contact persons

Project Leader

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