Skip to main content

Least-cost electrification Pathways for Madagascar

The Royal Institute of Technology in Sweden was invited to participate in the Least-Cost Electricity Access Project for Madagascar together with the World Bank and other local and international partners. In the project, the OnSSET tool was used and customized to examine affordable electrification pathways for Madagascar.

Background

Madagascar's electricity sector, which is strongly affected by the socio-political crises of 2002 and 2009, is characterized by several structural failures, notably due to insufficient production capacity and saturated transmission networks. Installed system capacity totals 4.4 MW, of which 30% is renewable and 70% is thermal, while conversely renewable energy provided 70% of the energy produced. Today, the persistence of investment delays for the expansion and maintenance of the electric power system has led to a quasi-permanent sectoral emergency, in which the country has established numerous and very expensive contracts with independent operators of small-scale thermal power plants in an attempt to meet growing energy demand.

Recognizing that the electricity sector has become a major obstacle to economic growth and development in the country, the Government developed the New Energy Policy (NEP) in 2015 with three main objectives: (i) ensuring universal access to Modern energy services; (ii) improving overall energy efficiency; and (iii) increasing the share of renewable energy in the production fleet.

The NEP 2015 estimated the national electricity access rate to be 15%, significantly lower than the average rate in sub-Saharan Africa (37.5% in 2014), indicating that more than 20 million people lack access to electricity in Madagascar. Moreover, the difference between rural and urban areas is very pronounced, with an access rate of 55% in urban areas and only 5% in rural areas.

Today, several factors pose challenges to national electrification efforts, including low population density and high costs to connect consumers; a saturated transmission network with limited scope; expensive power production

with little maintenance; the weak financial status of sector utilities; and the lack of a shared vision of expanding access to electricity.

Aim and objectives

The overall scope of this assignment includes:

  • Data gathering, and validation as appropriate for a high level electrification rollout implementation strategy analysis, leading up to the assembling of all the digitized data layers to support spatial planning. These shall broadly encompass, but not be limited to: (i) where the people without access and other potential beneficiaries are – locations of priority service delivery facilities such as schools, health clinics, administrative centers, major productive load centers – household spatial settlement patterns and extent of spatial nucleation across and within settlements, etc.; (ii) digitized representation of existing MV networks and lines, the national grid system and the main bulk supply delivery points – existing and planned - (iii) data on renewable energy resource availability, at each sub-location; (iv) other socio-economic-indicators;
  • Projections of electricity connections and demand for the population with no or inadequate electricity services at a disaggregated level (by sub-locations and aggregated for presentation to district and province at a minimum); The focus should be on an integrated technical planning approach, combining the top-down (master plan) projections with bottom-up spatial (least cost) model and load forecasts.
  • Comparison of different technologies and electricity supply options (technical and economic viability), cost comparison, and the estimate of total costs for electrification at each sub-location (investment and operating), including national grid-based medium voltage network extensions and new connections roll out thereof. Off-grid applications include expansion of existing isolated networks and supply, development of new mini-grids and supply, and individual household or institutional systems, using renewable energy as appropriate and as much as possible. This will be done with the least-cost electrification tool OnSSET.

Project partners

Funding is provided by the World Bank.

Timeframe: 2017 - 2018

Researchers

asahl
Babak Khavari
Babak Khavari
alekor
Smart City Concepts in Curitiba: Low-carbon Transport and Mobility in a Digital Society
Urban Circularity Assessment Framework
The interface of sustainability science and bioenergy systems
Using the sustainable development goals for shaping holistic energy programs, projects and policies
The Clean Cooking Explorer platform for Nepal
Geospatial Analysis and Electrification Investment Scenario Preparation for Yemen
Capacity building on geospatial electrification analysis for industrializing countries
Capturing emissions in least-cost electrification planning
Assessment of the potential for battery storage to provide affordable electricity access through solar PV mini-grids in West Africa
Mwinda Project: Data-driven solutions for people-centered electrification in the DRC
Preparation of an Indicative Least Cost Geospatial Electrification Plan To Achieve Universal Access In Somalia
Preparation of an Indicative Least Cost Geospatial Electrification Plan to Achieve Universal Access in Benin
World Energy Outlook 2019
Least-cost electrification Pathways for Benin
The Global Electrification Platform
Least-cost electrification Pathways for Madagascar
The UNECE nexus assessment of the Drin River Basin
SIM4NEXUS
Climate, Land and Energy Analytical study of Potential Nexus Issues in Jordan and Morocco
OPM Ethiopia project “Energy system development pathways in Ethiopia”
National energy planning and policy support for the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals
Bio-based circular model for sustainable urban economies
Chemical Recycling for Circular Flows of Plastic Waste
African Power Pool Modelling
Assessing the sustainability of bioethanol production in different development contexts: a systems approach
Assessing the Water-Land-Energy-Food Nexus in trans-boundary river basins
BioGreenBaltic
Bioethanol strategy for Indonesia
Biogas based poly-generation for rural development in Bangladesh
Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) in China’s power plants
Climate Vulnerability of African Countries (completed projects)
Cost optimal pathways for the Cypriot energy system
Country level CLEWs
Developing an electricity supply model for Cyprus
Development of long-term energy projections for African countries
Development of the Model Management Infrastructure (MoManI) interface
Electricity Access in the Brazilian Amazon
Electrification paths for developing countries
Energy systems-CGE modelling Link up for pilot countries
Energy Systems Analysis Agency
Estimating Investment Needs for the Power Sector in the Africa Region
Fuel options for public bus fleets in Sweden
Global CLEWs model (completed projects)
INSIGHT_E: An energy think tank informing the European Commission
INSISTS Sustainable Bioenergy Development in Indonesia
Nexus assessment of the North West Sahara Aquifer System (NWSAS)
Open Geospatial Data for Energy Access
OpeN Source Spatial Electrification Toolkit (ONSSET)
Oskarshamn CLEWs
Providing rural energy access in developing countries
REEEM
Renewable energy mapping for Africa
Robust Energy and Climate Indicators for the Steel Industry
SAMBA
About the project
Urban Smart Grids in Brazil
Supporting the Design of Sustainable Development Policies with Policy Modelling Tools
SweGRIDS
The Development of Bioethanol Markets under Sustainability Requirements
The Electricity Model Base for Africa (TEMBA)
CO2 Emissions and Energy Efficiency in Sweden
Uganda 100% Renewable by 2050
About the project
Wireless Bus Stop Charging